Egle Butt, one of the DART research student will present new findings from her PhD work in one of the parallel sessions of the FUR2016 Conference entitled: Risk attitudes I.
When Are Severe Outcomes More Probable? – The Role of Base Rate
Tuesday, 28 June 2016 from 11:00 to 12:30 (BST)
Warwick University – Coventry, CV4 7AL
Communicating risk of uncertain outcomes (e.g., court sentence) often involves probabilities. People prefer to receive probabilistic information numerically (e.g., there is 70% chance that your case will not end in your favour), but they prefer to express it verbally (e.g., it is likely that your case will not end in your favour) (Erev & Cohen, 1990). Consequential decisions (e.g., should I take the plea bargain?) thus require an adequate interpretation of verbal probabilities. Some research suggests Continue reading